Planning...

Economic Week In Review | Issue 438 | 15 July 2024

UK construction and property

  • Collateral warranties | The Supreme Court has unanimously decided that a collateral warranty is not a construction contract and therefore cannot be subject to adjudication. Third parties wanting to make claims over a breach of a collateral warranty can do so under arbitration or litigation, but these typically take longer and can cost more.
  • Water investment plans | The Water Services Regulatory Authority published its draft determination for the regulatory period April 2025 to March 2030 which details what it expects from water companies. It proposes £88bn of total expenditure, which is £16bn lower than the announced spending plans of the water companies. £35bn of that spending is to tackle pollution, improve river and bathing water quality, and create greater resilience to climate change.
  • Civils costs | The Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) latest forecast expects civil engineering costs to rise by 14% over the next five years, and that tender prices will rise by 22% over the same period, and output by 16%. Labour will be the largest driver of increases.
  • Competencies | Under the new Building Safety Act, building inspectors need to be registered and to prove their competencies, however too few inspectors have registered despite the deadline being extended by three months. The Local Authority Building Control has warned that a “significant number of authorities” will be unable to perform building control and the rules have had to be changed to allow some class two or three inspectors who are still awaiting their results to inspect buildings unsupervised.
  • Output – The latest data from the ONS shows that total output in May 2024 was 1.9% higher than the month before, following a fall of 1.1% in April. Both new work and repair and maintenance rose.
  • Contract rollout | JCT released 13 documents in its Intermediate Building Contract last week. Critics have voiced views that it leaves key aspects of the Building Safety Act unaddressed.
  • Construction lag | Housebuilders have warned that an increase in housing supply will take at least a year and completions are not expected to rise until the second half of next year despite it being a focus of the new government. Savills estimates that new homes for private sale will fall to 100,000 in the year to March 2025, much lower than the 300,000 target, and Barratt has warned of low output this year due to buying less land in the past two years.
  • Social housing | Lloyds Banking Group is to convert its unused offices into social housing, having reviewed its office portfolio post-Covid. It will also expand its Citra Living private rental arm and become the first UK bank in the affordable housing market. Under the plans, Citra will become the landlord while local authorities take on the everyday management.
  • Planning challenges | A Freedom of Information request by Bloomberg has found that housebuilders are increasingly using planning performance agreements (PPAs) to get their proposals looked at promptly. Whilst PPAs are not legally binding and there are no penalties if the deadlines are missed, their increased usage is seen as an indication of the poor state of the planning process.

Global economy

  • China | GDP grew 4.7% in the second quarter of 2023 when compared to the same period a year earlier, less than was expected. Retail sales rose at the slowest rate since December 2022. China has an annual growth target of near 5%.
  • India | Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced £2.7bn of infrastructure works aimed at making Mumbai a global fintech capital, easing traffic congestion and boosting employment.
  • Europe | The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rate levels at its meeting next week. The markets expect a rate cut of 0.25 percentage points in September.

UK economy

  • Inflation expectations | Data from the ONS on Wednesday is expected to show that the UK’s services inflation has fallen slightly.
  • Wage expectations | On Thursday, the ONS will release data on wage growth, which economists expect to be below 6% for the first time in 20 months.
  • House sales | The number of house sales agreed in the last month is 15% higher than a year ago. Rightmove has said that buyers are anticipating interest rate cuts in August. However, house prices have fallen marginally.
  • Financial difficulty | Almost 3 million people in the UK fell into financial difficulties last year. 44% of the adult population – 20.3 million – are now financially vulnerable, according to a study by Fair4All Finance and Trajectory.
  • King’s Speech | The King will set out the legislative agenda on Wednesday with a speech expected to launch 35 new bills, including one governing the use of AI.

Materials and commodities

  • Timber imports | Timber Development UK reported that timber imports in April 2024 were 4.7% higher than in April 2023.
  • Iron ore is one of the worst-performing commodities of the year so far, falling 20% in the year to date.
  • Gas storage in Europe has been filling more slowly than the ten-year average, however, it is projected to exceed the maximum technical capacity, so injections need to slow.

Environment

  • Floods caused a 19% fall in income from UK farming last year due to lower yields when prices were low. According to the Met Office, more rain fell between October 2022 and March 2024 than in any other 18-month period since comparable data began in 1836.
  • Power grids are under increasing strain from climate change as they struggle to deal with power surges from renewable energy, storm damage, or spikes in demand to fuel air conditioning. Electricity demand is expected to double by 2038 (according to Bloomberg NEF), and global networks will require significant investment to increase resiliency.
  • Solar panels | The UK’s new energy secretary, Ed Miliband, has pushed through planning approval for three large solar farms in the east of England as part of a pledge to triple the amount of solar power in the UK by 2030
  • Heat alert | A record-breaking heatwave will place 245 million Americans under temperatures of 32C to 40C.

Friday to Friday

Price / Index Week %
change
Annual %
change
FTSE 100 8,252.91 0.60 11.10
FTSE 250 21,202.89 2.00 14.20
Nikkei 41,190.68 0.68 27.17
CSI 300 3,472.40 1.20 -10.94
S&P 500 5,615.35 0.87 24.64
Nasdaq 18,398.45 0.25 30.36
CAC 40 7,724.32 0.61 4.74
Dax 18,748.18 1.48 16.41
$ per £ 1.2984 1.38 -0.97
€ per £ 1.1910 0.69 2.06
Gold £/oz 1,856.74 -0.53 24.33
Brent Oil $/barrel 85.03 -1.74 6.46

Weekly Summary

This week will bring some important data on inflation, unemployment and wages, which could determine the Bank of England’s decision on 1st August. Combined with a new set of political goals and the recent announcement that the National Planning Policy Framework will be consulted on before the end of the month, we will continue to watch for growing confidence to translate into an increase in construction workloads.

Author contact

Rachel Coleman
Rachel Coleman,
Associate Research Analyst