Missing piece of the puzzle

Economic Week In Review | Issue 445 | 2 September 2024

UK construction and property

  • Blockages | A group of civil servants will investigate 200 stalled housing developments. The team from the Ministry of Housing and Homes England—labelled the New Homes Accelerator—will examine sites with outline or detailed plans but have not begun construction. The 200 developments are expected to deliver up to 300,000 new homes.
  • Housing starts | Data from the ONS shows that housing completions in the first quarter of 2024 were the lowest quarterly figure since Q1 2016. Just 38,400 homes were completed, equaling a 153,000 annual total, much lower than the 300,000 target. The British Property Federation has called on the Government to “supercharge” the build-to-rent sector.
  • Post-Grenfell report | Ahead of Sir Martin Moore-Bick’s final Grenfell Inquiry report next week, the Construction Leadership Council has issued a report explaining how the industry has changed since then. The full report is available here.
  • Employee retention | The latest Employee Retention Report by equity management platform Vestd, has revealed that construction has one of the highest rates of employee retention in the UK, despite having an average tenure of 4.4 years.
  • Retrofit | The London Borough of Haringey is to launch a retrofit scheme, having started a consultation period. The scheme will oversee an initial 200 homes retrofitted with energy-saving measures such as insulation and double glazing. The borough has ambitions to retrofit all of its 15,000 council homes.
  • Skills | This year’s T-Level results show that construction-specific courses underperformed other courses with a pass rate of 80.4% and no distinctions. Women were very under-represented in the courses and take-up in London (where the skills shortage is acute) was very low.

Global economy

  • China’s markets | The People’s Bank of China has bought $56bn of long-dated sovereign bonds, encouraging traders to speculate that the Bank is moving to shore up the bond market.
  • Chinese factories | The latest Caxin survey of Chinese manufacturers showed a fall in export orders ahead of the crucial Christmas period. The Caxin/S&P Global PMI index rose from 49.8 in July to 50.4 in August. Manufacturers reported that raw material prices were lower and confidence was increasing.
  • Germany | The stagnant economy is beginning to affect banks. Risk provisioning has increased to nearly 50% in the first half of the year, and banks expect things to worsen before any possible improvement. Geopolitical concerns are one of the largest risks as companies and consumers struggle.

UK economy

  • Factory growth | The latest S&P Global report shows that UK manufacturing PMI rose from 52.1 in July to 52.5 in August, a 26-month high. Manufacturers reported that price pressures had eased and domestic demand had increased. However, there are concerns that the UK’s economic recovery could slow.
  • Borrowing costs | The premium for the UK Government’s borrowing costs compared to that of the USA rose to its highest levels for almost a year. The cost of borrowing in the UK continues to be driven by concerns over domestic-services inflation and a resilient economy that is enabling continually high interest rates.

Materials and commodities

  • Brick dust | A two-year study led by the Mineral Products Association and funded by Innovate UK has shown how waste clay and brick dust could be used in the production of low carbon cement, reducing its embodied carbon by 3%.
  • Centralised purchasing | An EU plan to centralise the purchase of natural gas and other critical commodities and materials has been criticised by trading platforms who say that it will make the bloc a commercial competitor.
  • Commodity expectations | Citi has moved to a “neutral” short-term stance on aluminium and zinc after a steep rally in the two metals. Prices have increased almost 15% from their lows earlier in the month. Citi’s outlook remains positive for the end of 2024 into 2025.

Friday to Friday

Price / Index Week %
change
Annual %
change
FTSE 100 8,376.63 0.59 12.22
FTSE 250 21,086.54 -0.49 13.75
Nikkei 38,700.87 0.88 18.31
CSI 300 3,321.43 -0.17 -12.40
S&P 500 5,648.40 0.24 25.08
Nasdaq 17,713.63 -0.92 26.24
CAC 40 7,630.95 0.71 4.58
Dax 18,906.92 1.47 19.36
$ per £ 1.3134 -0.47 4.28
€ per £ 1.1874 0.58 1.71
Gold £/oz 1,907.06 0.31 23.75
Brent Oil $/barrel 78.80 -0.28 -11.01

Weekly Summary

Against a backdrop of improving manufacturing sentiment, falling raw material costs, and improving sentiment, this week’s T-Level data is a stark reminder of the labour challenge facing construction. A diminished workforce (that will further reduce with the end of Grandfather Rights and future retirements) will struggle to deliver an increased pipeline unless meaningful increases to productivity levels are made.

Author contact

Rachel Coleman
Rachel Coleman,
Associate Research Analyst