Brighter later?

Economic Week In Review | Issue 458 | 2 December 2024

UK construction and property

  • Office activity | Deloitte’s latest crane survey shows that office projects in London have slowed. New office construction was down 12%, and refurbishments were down by more than 50%. This is the first time new builds have been more dominant than refurbishments in nearly five years. Life science schemes – made up of both laboratory space and office workspace – were responsible for 35% of new starts, driving the bulk of new activity in King’s Cross and Docklands.
  • Rebound | Glenigan forecasts construction output to increase next year as the recent Budget adjusted fiscal rules to allow for higher levels of capital investment, expected to unlock significant investment in public sector and infrastructure projects. The rebound could be further supported if economic growth strengthens, and further interest rates buoy private housing activity.
  • Apprenticeships | The government has announced plans to invest £140m to create 5,000 more construction apprenticeships in England. Up to 32 new Homebuilding Skills Hubs will be set up in areas that need more housebuilding. The hubs will train people in trades such as bricklaying, roofing, plastering, scaffolding, electrical, and carpentry, in association with the Construction Industry Training Board, the National House-Building Council, Civil Service and Skills England. The fast-track apprenticeships will be completed in 12-18 months, approximately half the time of a traditional construction apprenticeship.
  • Housing supply levels have fallen by 6% year-on-year according to the ONS. Figures from the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government (MHCLG) show there were 221,070 net additional dwellings in 2023/24, down from 234,290 the previous year. It is the lowest number since 2015/16 (excluding the pandemic). Furthermore, the number of new homes built fell by 7% from 212,360 to 198,610. Affordable housing starts in London fell by 88% year-on-year.
  • Guarantees | Building on the Budget, the MHCLG has started to develop more than 20,000 homes by providing a £3bn funding package for SME and build-to-rent (BTR) developers. The package is intended to reduce risk for lenders and encourage them to increase the supply of credit for housebuilders. 
  • Government spending | The Crown Commercial Service – part of the Cabinet Office – has given notice of a single, seven-year framework for £80bn of construction work and associated services, including healthcare and offsite solutions.
  • Cladding deadline | The government has set a new deadline for the remediation of cladding on tall buildings. Dangerous cladding now needs to be replaced by the end of the decade, on buildings taller than 11 meters. A report by the National Audit Office recently warned that fixing all tall buildings would probably not be finished by 2035.

Global economy

  • Trade dispute | The European Commission has initiated a case against China at the WTO concerning temporary anti-dumping measures imposed by Beijing on importing brandy from the EU. These measures by China were applied in retaliation for EU tariffs on electric vehicles manufactured in China. China is also conducting anti-dumping investigations regarding the import of pork and dairy products from the EU. 
  • Tariff concerns | President-elect Trump has warned of 100% tariffs on the BRICS group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa later joined by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran) if they create a new currency to rival the US dollar. President Putin has recently called for an alternative international payment system, moving away from the US dollar. Exporters from China are already front-loading shipments to the US ahead of expected tariffs next year.
  • Eurozone inflation rose to 2.3% annually in November, up from 2% in October, according to preliminary data released by Eurostat on Friday. The figure aligns with the anticipated narrowing of the deflationary impacts of energy prices. While this increase marks a slight departure from the European Central Bank’s target, the monthly data shows a more optimistic trend. Consumer prices in the eurozone fell by 0.3% in November compared to October, the steepest monthly decline since January 2024.  
  • German factory strikes | Workers at Volkswagen’s factories in Germany will strike this week after the carmaker announced plans to close three plants (its first domestic closures in its 87-year history). Germany has struggled in recent months with weak consumer demand and competition from China over electric cars.

UK economy

  • Tax impact | A poll of 266 business leaders, by the Confederation of British Industry revealed that almost two-thirds of companies plan to hire fewer people following the increase to National Insurance Contributions. 46% are planning to delay planned pay increases.
  • M&A activity has increased towards the end of the year with four large takeovers totalling £5.3bn. The total value of deals has totalled just over £240bn this year, a 57% increase on the same period last year, according to Dealogic, outpacing the rest of Europe.
  • Skills loss | The number of candidates completing exams to become a chartered financial analyst (CFA) has fallen 40% from its peak in 2019. The chief executive of the CFA Institute said that a downturn in the growth from China was the main cause.
  • Mortgages | Half of UK mortgage holders could see their payments increase over the next three years, the Bank of England has suggested. It estimates that almost 4.4 million mortgages are expected to see payments rise by 2027, including £500-per-month hikes for around 420,000 households.

Materials and commodities

  • Material supply concerns | According to the Construction Leadership Council (CLC) a rapid increase in demand for construction projects would be difficult for the existing materials market to supply. The CLC stated the slowdown in demand over the past two years has led to a reduction in supply and stock levels.
  • Copper prices have fallen after pressure from a stronger dollar and concerns over trade relations between the US and China.
  • Oil prices climbed nearly 1% on Thursday morning, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East after Israel reported violations of its ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. Brent crude rose to $72.90 a barrel by midday trading Europe, recovering from a two-day slump. While geopolitical tension and OPEC+ strategies will shape the short-term outlook, broader structural trends including the energy transition challenges are expected to sustain demand in the long-term. Goldman Sachs anticipates oil demand will continue to grow for another decade, driven by rising energy needs in emerging economies as they expand, coupled with the ongoing challenges of decarbonising air travel and petrochemical production. 
  • Steel | Tata Steel’s Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, T.V. Narendran has said that falling steel prices and Chinese imports to India are currently more of a concern than demand for steel in India. He added that China has “excess capacity in all areas” and could give cause for import tariffs.

Environment

  • Flooding risk | Research by AXA UK has found that homes and businesses across England most at risk of flooding could face at least £818m in costs by 2055. The south-east faces the highest financial toll, with costs projected to reach £187m by 2055, 66% higher than the south-west. At the other end of the spectrum, the north-east faces the lowest cost at £19m. London, Yorkshire and the Humber, and the East Midlands rank in the middle of English regions in terms of financial impact. However, the Flood Index indicates that these areas are less resilient in recovering from flood damage compared to the Southeast, which has better defences.
  • Climate leave: Spain has approved four days of paid climate leave for workers, so they do not need to commute during extreme weather, a month after floods killed nearly 230 people in the country. The Council of Ministers passed the new measure on Thursday to ensure the safety of citizens during natural disasters and weather emergencies. Inspired by a similar measure in Canada, Spain’s climate leave will be linked to alerts about climate and meteorological disasters.

Friday to Friday

Price / Index Week %
change
Annual %
change
FTSE 100 8,287.30 0.31 10.07
FTSE 250 20,771.57 0.92 12.84
Nikkei 38,208.03 -0.20 14.29
CSI 300 3,916.58 1.32 12.45
S&P 500 6,032.38 1.06 31.29
Nasdaq 19,218.17 1.13 34.35
CAC 40 7,235.11 -0.27 -1.51
Dax 19,626.45 1.57 19.69
$ per £ 1.2696 1.45 0.11
€ per £ 1.2039 0.02 3.27
Gold £/oz 2,079.23 -4.05 27.54
Brent Oil $/barrel 72.94 -2.97 -7.53

Weekly Summary

As labour is expected to be a key driver of inflation, it’s positive to see that action is being taken to develop the talent necessary to enable the government’s target to build more homes. Whilst housing starts and developments may be at a low level currently, these skills will take time to develop and could alleviate bottlenecks in other sectors.

Trade disputes, persistent inflation, and the prospect of the bank rate being higher for longer have perhaps pushed the expected rebound in confidence a little further into the future.

Author contact

Rachel Coleman
Rachel Coleman,
Associate Research Analyst
Kishan Patel
Kishan Patel,
Research Analyst