Data questions

Economic Week In Review | Issue 459 | 9 December 2024

UK construction and property

  • Office availability | The latest data from Knight Frank shows that vacancy rates in London have fallen to near-record lows for newly built offices offering top-end tenant facilities and sustainability credentials. It calculates that just 380,000 sqft of space is available across St James and Mayfair, and the City of London – less than eight months of average take-up. However, across all stock, the vacancy rate is much higher and made up of mostly lower-quality buildings.
  • Fire safety | A report commissioned by the government by Harlow Consulting and Edinburgh Napier University has called for more research into the fire safety performance of volumetric modular construction. The concerns come two years after the National Fire Chiefs Council asked for such tests and specific legislation to be introduced under the Building Safety Act. The new report does, however, suggest that there is “insufficient evidence to suggest whether a fire is more or less likely in a modular building”. The Health and Safety Executive / Building Safety Regulator also published a paper last week highlighting several risks associated with volumetric construction.
  • Fair payment | The government launched the Fair Payment Code which introduces a bronze, silver, and gold award rating system related to the number of invoices paid in a certain time period. It comes as the government has promised to “crackdown” on late payments.
  • Long-term strategy | The Construction Industry Council (CIC) has called on the government to produce a long-term construction and built environment strategy. This follows the Department for Business and Trade’s consultation on Invest 2035: the UK’s modern industrial strategy, which closed last week. The CIC said that construction should be seen as the country’s critical foundational sector, and a long-term strategy should be developed as a “living document” with meaningful input from built environment professionals.
  • ISG impact | The National Audit Office has revealed that the collapse of ISG will add between three and 18 months to the prison expansion programme as ISG was the contractor on 17% of the expansion programme.
  • Permitted development rights | Analysis by the Local Government Association has found that almost 24,000 affordable houses have been lost in office-to-residential developments as, without the need for full planning permission, there is no mechanism to allocate affordable housing or enforce infrastructure contributions from developers.
  • Infrastructure decisions | In a speech outlining the government’s plans, the Prime Minister said the forthcoming Planning and Infrastructure Bill would streamline the approvals process promising to end delays caused by objectors. Starmer said the new target of 150 major infrastructure decisions throughout this parliament would triple the rate compared to the last parliament.
  • Output | According to the S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), construction output increased in November as the index rose to 55.2, with 50.0 being the neutral value showing no growth. This increase in output was driven by commercial work with the strongest rise in two and a half years at 58.1 up from 52.8 in the previous month, driven by consumer demand and new opportunities to tender. However, housebuilding activity declined at its sharpest pace since June at 47.9 down from the previous month’s figure of 49.4 showing a further retraction in the sub-sector. S&P respondents blamed this on high borrowing costs and fragile consumer confidence.

Global economy

  • Inflation in China has weakened to 0.2% in November, intensifying the pressure on the state to create more stimulus. A poll of economists expected a rise of 0.5%. Its produce price index, which measures the price of goods sold by manufacturers, fell by 2.5% annually.
  • Free trade deal | The European Union and South America’s Mercosur trade bloc have agreed on terms for a long-anticipated free trade deal that aims to create one of the largest free trade zones in the world, covering 700 million people and nearly 25% of global GDP. However, the deal is not yet finalised; France leads a group of member countries who still have objections to the pact, and all 27 member countries must endorse it for the agreement to go ahead.
  • Energy subsidy | Germany’s cabinet has approved a proposal for a €3 billion subsidy to offset electricity network fees for consumers next year. The subsidy will be financed through federal funds and is expected to lower a portion of network charges which currently make up 20% of electricity bills. Network fees are expected to rise to cover the modernisation of Germany’s electrical grid to support renewable energy expansion. The subsidy is, however, subject to approval from the parliament in the current legislative period after the collapse of Germany’s governing coalition.

UK economy

  • Demand for staff | A survey of UK recruiters by KPMG and the Recruitment and Employers Confederation reported a drop in its vacancy index from 46.1 to 43.9, suggesting the sharpest contraction in job openings since August 2020. Businesses indicated they were “having to weigh up the prospect of increasing employee costs”.
  • Diversity push | Research by headhunter Spencer Stuart found that the move by UK companies to diversify their boards is stalling, with fewer ethnic minority directors appointed in 2024, and women still struggling to reach senior roles. FTSE100 boards were required to have at least one director from an ethnic minority background by December 2021 according to the Parker Review, and mid-cap FTSE250 companies also need to do so by the middle of this month.
  • Manufacturing decline | The S&P Global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for manufacturing fell to a nine-month low of 48.0 last month. The UK’s downturn in manufacturing isn’t an isolated event; the eurozone also recorded a low PMI figure of 45.2 in November, with the prolonged downturn centred on its three largest economies – Germany, France, and Italy.
  • Employment levels | The ONS has raised its estimates for the labour force, with employment numbers for people aged between 16-64 believed to have been 484,000 higher in April to June this year than previously projected. As a result, employment has been shifted upwards by 402,000, unemployment by 30,000 and economic inactivity by 60,000. The employment rate is estimated to be 0.1% higher, while inactivity is down 0.1%. Although the total hours worked is now more than previously thought, each employee is less productive than old figures showed.
  • Growth forecasts | The OECD improved its growth forecast for Britain’s economy next year. Economic growth has been forecasted to increase from a previous forecast of 1.2% to 1.7% in 2025 due to increased government spending which is also likely to push inflation with the OECD expecting British inflation to average 2.7% in 2025 – higher than any G7 country. Such an outcome would represent the fastest growth since 2017, excluding the wild swings in output that took place during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the OECD warned this growth will be fleeting, forecasting growth to slow to 1.3% in 2026, with increased taxes expected to weigh on private consumption.

Materials and commodities

  • Timber imports fell 1.2% in the third quarter of 2024, but at a product level, the picture was mixed. Softwood, orientated strand board, and engineered wood product imports fell, but softwood imports increased. Data from Timber Development UK also showed that prices continued to stabilise after a period of significant volatility.
  • 3D concrete printer | Northumbria University announced a new printing technology that it claims can print concrete structures faster, cheaper, and more sustainably than conventional methods. It says that concrete printing could reduce construction waste by 60%, reduce production time by 70%, and reduce labour costs by 80% when compared to traditional construction projects.

Environment

  • Climate innovation boost | The European Commission announced it will provide €6 billion to promote net-zero technologies, electric vehicle battery cell manufacturing and renewable hydrogen. The money comes from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the bloc’s carbon pricing scheme expected to generate around €40 billion between 2020 and 2030. The funding is to be allocated through different calls for proposals, open until April 2025.
  • Climate technology partnership | The UK and Qatar have agreed to £1 billion investment in climate technology. The partnership is expected to create thousands of highly skilled jobs over its lifetime and will see the launch of world-leading climate technology hubs across the UK and Qatar to accelerate development in climate-friendly technologies. It will also see investment in start-ups in both the UK and Qatar that focus on energy efficiency, carbon management, and green power.

Friday to Friday

Price / Index Week %
change
Annual %
change
FTSE 100 8,308.61 0.26 9.98
FTSE 250 21,059.00 1.38 12.60
Nikkei 39,091.17 2.31 21.00
CSI 300 3,973.14 1.44 16.88
S&P 500 6,090.27 0.96 32.27
Nasdaq 19,859.77 3.34 37.88
CAC 40 7,426.88 2.65 -1.32
Dax 20,384.61 3.86 21.63
$ per £ 1.2743 0.37 1.65
€ per £ 1.2064 0.21 3.40
Gold £/oz 2,066.60 -0.61 29.37
Brent Oil $/barrel 71.12 -2.50 -6.22

Weekly Summary

This week’s revisions to the labour data demonstrate how difficult it is to understand the scale of the skills crisis from a numbers perspective. MPs and members of the OBR have commented that the data issues make it difficult to set monetary and fiscal policy appropriately. However, wage data and project experiences show that it is a real problem that the construction industry needs to remedy ahead of any recovery that may be forecast by the PMI survey.

Author contact

Rachel Coleman
Rachel Coleman,
Associate Research Analyst
Kishan Patel
Kishan Patel,
Research Analyst