A national embarrassment...

Economic Week In Review | Issue 463 | 20 January 2025

UK construction and property

  • High risk buildings | RIBA has called for “assembly buildings” such as schools and train stations to be classed as “higher risk” buildings following last year’s publication of the Grenfell Inquiry Phase 2 report.
  • Collusion | The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is extending its investigation into potential collusion by housebuilders by five months. The CMA expressed “fundamental concerns” over issues such as planning and market structures. It also voiced criticism about the slow speed of innovation in the sector.
  • “National embarrassment” | An inquiry by the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) found that the condition of local roads in England are a “national embarrassment” and the backlog is growing every year, suggesting that the government needs to take it seriously. The PAC’s inquiry raised concerns that despite over a billion pounds a year being given to local authorities to maintain the roads, the Department for Transport does not know how the money is spent, and the funds are not ringfenced.
  • Infrastructure | Three consortia have been shortlisted to build a commercial prototype fusion energy plant in Northamptonshire. The three will now enter into discussions with UK Industrial Fusion Solutions, a subsidiary of the UK Atomic Energy Authority Group.
  • Railways | The Chancellor is expected to freeze all spending on new major rail projects until after the next General Election as three large projects are expected to consume all current funds. The existing schemes are HS2 Phase One, upgrades to the TransPennine line, and East West Rail, a new line which connects Oxford, Milton Keynes, Bedford, and Cambridge.
  • Construction output | The latest data from the ONS shows that construction output grew 0.4% in November, after falling by 0.3% the month before. The main monthly contributions came from new private commercial work and non-housing repair and maintenance.
  • Skills crisis | A survey by the Engineering Construction Industry Training Board (ECITB) has revealed that 71% of employers have experienced challenges in hiring workers, an increase since 2021 when only 51% reported challenges. Some of the reasons for the challenges were: a shortage of qualified workers, a mismatch between expectation and offer, and increased competition. The survey also showed that new entrants into the sector are not enough to counter a coming wave of retirements. 30% of platers, 24% of welders and 20% of pipefitters are over 60.
  • Inclusive learning | An industry-specific training programme has been launched to support neurodiverse people working in the industry. The Neurodiversity in Construction Training Programme is available through the Supply Chain Sustainability School learning pathways, offering free training, covering topics such as ADHD and autism with dedicated modules on neurodivergence and acquired neurodivergence. This training programme was developed after research by the National Federation of Builders (NHB), published in 2023, revealed one in four construction workers considered themselves to have neurodiverse conditions. The NHB’s 2023 report is available here.
  • International investment | A new trade deal between the British and Malaysian governments confirmed a £2bn investment to speed up the delivery of the Brabazon new town in the West of England. Alongside 6,500 new homes, of which 1,700 will be affordable, the scheme will also deliver student accommodation, schools, a higher education research campus and over 86 acres of public space.
  • Lettings | 22 Bishopsgate has become fully let after agreeing a record rent for the City of £122 per sq ft last year for its top floor. Insurance Company Riverstone International recently signed a 15-year lease for the remaining space on the tower’s fifth floor.

Global economy

  • US economy | 10-year government debt yields reached 4.8%, the highest since 2023 after strong data on jobs reduced expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar reached a two-year high against a basket of currencies.
  • Inauguration | Donald Trump will be sworn in as th 47th President of the United States of America on Monday, 20th January and has promised a “historic” day one with a multitude of executive orders.
  • China’s economy grew by 5% in 2024, in line with government targets but at the slowest rate since 1990 (excluding the Covid pandemic). Industrial output was up by 5.8% in 2024, helped by a strong performance in manufacturing. Retail sales increased by only 3.5%, despite policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, as China attempts to rebalance growth away from a heavy dependence on exports, towards domestic consumption.
  • Ukraine deal | Kier Starmer has visited Ukraine for the first time since entering No 10, to sign a deal with Volodymyr Zelensky. The 100 Year Partnership will deepen ties on defence, science, energy and trade.
  • German economy | The German economy contracted for the second year in a row, the first time this has happened in over 20 years. GDP fell by 0.2% last year, following a 0.3% decline the previous year as the economy is under significant pressure due to weak domestic demand, soaring energy prices and increasing competition from cheaper Chinese imports. This has particularly affected its manufacturing sector with output down 3% in 2024 compared to the previous year.

UK economy

  • Retail sales | Food retailers saw a surprise fall in sales volumes in December, with the ONS reporting a 1.9% month-on-month fall for supermarkets. Total retail sales volume fell 0.3%, whilst economists had expected an increase of 0.4%. The value of sales increased 3.5% demonstrating the cost of inflation.
  • Skills concerns | An analysis by the Financial Times shows that lower foreign student enrolment at UK universities has led to increased levels of redundancies at universities, with more than a third of universities reporting job losses. Severance spending at the Russell Group of universities has increased by more than a fifth.
  • Growth | Economic output returned to growth in November with GDP rising by 0.1% compared to October, after falls in September and October. However, an increase in government spending is expected to give a short-term boost to growth in 2025. Compared with a year earlier, economic output was 1% higher in November, weaker than the 1.3% expansion forecast by economists. To simulate spending and economic activity many economists now believe that the Monetary Policy Committee is more likely to cut rates in February. Due to the surge of public spending expected in 2025 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted growth of 1.6% in 2025, an upgrade from its previous forecast of 1.5% in October.
  • Inflation | The latest ONS data shows that inflation in the year to December was lower than predicted at 2.5%, down from 2.6% in the previous month. Despite inflation rates cooling in December, economists expect inflation may increase in the coming months, fuelled by rising energy bills after Ofgem increased the consumer price cap by 1.2% in January.

Materials, commodities and currencies

  • EU gas cap | The European Union intends to let its gas price cap expire as scheduled at the end of the month. The cap of 180 euros per megawatt hour was introduced due to the high energy prices caused by the crisis in Ukraine, which caused gas prices to peak above 300 euro per megawatt hour. The European Commission is currently drafting new measures to address high energy prices, as prices are higher than a year ago, despite being well below the levels seen in August 2022. Italy has urged Brussels to renew the cap but lower its ceiling to 60 euros.
  • Iron ore | Australia temporarily closed its largest iron ore export port as a tropical cyclone developed offshore. Port Hedland handles iron ore from all major miners such as BHP Group, Rio Tinto Group, and Fortescue Ltd.
  • Lithium | The US Department of Energy, under Joe Biden, has finalised a $996 million loan for ioneer’s lithium project at Rhyolite Ridge. It represents a significant $296 million increase on the original funding offer and is hoped to improve green energy in the US. The decision cannot be reversed under incoming President Trump.

Environment

  • Environmental regulations | The Environmental Agency’s Chief Regulator, Dr Jo Nettleton has called for the environmental regulation framework to be reformed after a publishing a report stating that a small group of rogue operators continue to be reckless, harming their local communities. The report calls for firmer action against those whose performance falls below standards.
  • Forever chemicals | Experts in per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) sent a letter to the Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (Defra) asking it to take stronger action against pollution by “forever chemicals” after it refused to match an EU ban on non-essential uses of them. The Environment Agency has identified more than 10,000 “high-risk sites” contaminated with PFAS, known as forever chemicals as they are persistent and do not break down in the environment.
  • Transport | A study by Solve the School Run has found that driving children to one sample school with high levels of private car transport in south London was associated with a 27% increase in nitrogen dioxide air pollution and congestion.

Friday to Friday

Price / Index Week %
change
Annual %
change
FTSE 100 8,505.22 3.11 13.98
FTSE 250 20,597.42 4.38 9.19
Nikkei 38,451.46 -1.89 5.59
CSI 300 3,812.34 2.14 16.64
S&P 500 5,996.66 2.91 23.90
Nasdaq 19,630.20 2.45 28.21
CAC 40 7,709.75 3.75 4.59
Dax 20,903.39 3.41 26.27
$ per £ 1.2180 -0.27 -3.91
€ per £ 1.1841 -0.74 1.71
Gold £/oz 2,222.27 0.84 39.56
Brent Oil $/barrel 80.79 1.29 2.84

Weekly Summary

Despite their inclusion as a headline of every Budget, England’s potholes have been named as a “national embarrassment”, and perhaps demonstrate the challenge of keeping up with backlogs. Short-termism in funding and uncertainty have been pointed to as causes for the poor maintenance of the roads, reinforcing recent calls for a longer term strategy across infrastructure and industry.

Yet, the findings by the Engineering Construction Industry Training Board (ECITB) on the worsening skills crisis show that even with a long term plan for work, we need to focus on skills and productivity to deliver future work.

Author contact

Rachel Coleman
Rachel Coleman,
Associate Research Analyst
Kishan Patel
Kishan Patel,
Research Analyst