Trade disputes...again?

Economic Week In Review | Issue 466 | 10 February 2025

UK construction and property

  • High-rise delays | Piling contractors have said that more needs to be done to tackle the delays to high-rise work caused by the Building Safety Act’s Gateway 2 checks. The delays have encouraged piling contractors to consider reducing their staff numbers and scaling back investment plans as delays extend far beyond the anticipated 12-week timeline. The Building Safety Regulator has acknowledged the problem and pledged to clear the backlog of 122 projects by April.
  • Output | New construction work in four regional cities – Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham, and Belfast saw a contraction in output which was largely driven by global and domestic uncertainty. In 2024, 47 schemes were underway, compared to 64 in 2023 and 74 in 2022. Out of the 47 new build starts, 22 were residential, nine were student housing, 3 were hotels, 11 were office projects, and 2 were multi-purpose projects.
  • Construction workloads fell in January as inflation increased to a 21-month high, according to the S&P Global UK Construction PMI. PMI was 48.1, down sharply from 53.3 in December. This is the first time workloads have fallen since February 2024. Building firms blamed macroeconomic conditions and delayed project starts from clients for the drop in work. The sharpest decline in work was in the civil engineering sector with commercial construction seeing the smallest contraction. Responses to the survey also suggested a return to inflation, with the steepest rise in input costs since April 2023 as suppliers passed on rising energy, transport, and staff costs.
  • Social housing supply | Housing associations have cut their new-build plans as social tenants are largely excluded from the Building Safety Fund (BSF) with only 10% going to social housing. Rhys Moore, the executive director of public impact at the National Housing Federation told the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) that social landlords had two options: invest in existing homes, repair and maintenance, or cut back on development. Moore added that social housing projects in London were down 90% drawing a link between the decline and the BSF scheme.
  • Social housing safety | Awaab’s Law, which forces landlords to fix dangerous homes has been delayed. From October, social landlords in England will have 24 hours to make emergency repairs, including to damp and mould. From 2026, the list of hazards will be expanded to include excess cold and heat, structural collapse, fire, electrical problems and hygiene hazards. Landlords will have until 2027 before having to begin fixing other hazards such as asbestos, exposure to lead or radiation and contaminated water supplies.
  • Grey belt policy | Following a five-month inquiry, the House of Lords Built Environment committee has concluded that the policy to introduce a new ‘grey belt’ category of land within the green belt is unlikely to have a significant impact on housebuilding. The committee also found ‘grey belt’ sites had the potential to support SME housebuilders as the smaller size of some grey belt sites would be less economically attractive to large housebuilders. However, affordable housing requirements make it financially difficult for smaller firms.
  • Nuclear plants | The government has announced plans to build more nuclear power plants across England and Wales by cutting red tape to make it easier to build them. Currently, nuclear development is restricted to eight sites. The new proposals will include mini-nuclear power stations in planning rules for the first time which also sees the scrapping of the set list of eight sites and removing the expiry date on nuclear planning rules – to prevent projects being timed out. A Nuclear Regulatory Taskforce will be set up to spearhead improvements in regulations to help more companies build in the UK, with the government soon to appoint an independent head to lead the taskforce.
  • Housebuilding targets | Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Raynor, has said that there are “no excuses” to not build its election manifesto pledge of 1.5 million homes, but acknowledged that it “was going to be really difficult”. However, a survey by Knight Frank of housebuilders found that the sector expects to build only half of the annual target this year. Lack of cash and tougher rules on affordable homes are cited as causes for the delay and low delivery numbers.
  • Administrations in the construction industry have reached a three-and-a-half-year low, according to data from Creditsafe. Ten companies went into administration in January.

Global economy

  • Tariffs| President Trump has suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada just hours before they were due to enter into force but still went ahead with 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, which Beijing called a “serious violation” of trade rules, on Tuesday. Beijing retaliated with 15% levies on coal and LNG and 10% levies on oil and agricultural products. This week is expected to bring tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminium imports to the US. China has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organisation (WTO), accusing the US of making false allegations about Beijing’s role in the flow of fentanyl opioids to the US to justify tariffs.
  • US Balance of Trade | Official figures showed a 3.5% jump in imports in December compared to the previous month, as importers tried to get ahead of expected tariffs. Exports fell by 2.6% on November to $266.5bn. This means that the US trade deficit hit its highest level since March 2022.
  • China’s population | The number of marriages in China fell by a fifth, reaching the lowest level on record since records began in 1986, and less than half the peak seen in 2013. China is facing a sharp drop in births, despite some localities removing the requirement of a marriage certificate to register a new baby.
  • Port traffic | China’s ports processed a record amount of goods in January as companies tried to export goods to the US before new tariffs were introduced, and ahead of the Lunar New Year.

UK economy

  • Manufacturing | Factory output in the UK continued its downwards trend in January, with manufacturers reporting the cost inflation had reached a two-year peak. The S&P Global UK manufacturing PMI survey posted a score of 48.3 last month indicating a contraction with new orders and employment opportunities continuing to decline. Businesses also citied increasing input costs and tax hikes announced in the October budget as additional challenges they were facing.
  • Interest rates: The Bank of England (BoE) has cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%, the lowest rate since June 2023. The BoE also downgraded its forecasts for growth projecting that GDP fell 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and will rise by just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025.
  • Price increases | A poll of 1500 businesses by HSBC found 39% are increasing prices in anticipation of higher tariffs. It also revealed half of firms are shifting their export markets to countries with lower trade barriers to side-step the hit of any potential trade wars. The survey also found that firms are also planning on adapting their supply chain through diversification, bringing the supply chain back in-house and expanding the products and services they sell to help offset potential tariffs.

Materials, commodities and currencies

  • Mineral products | Mortar sales fell by 15% in 2024, and ready-mixed concrete and asphalt orders dropped by almost 11% and 3% respectively, as the Mineral Products Association (MPA) called for ministers to create business confidence by unlocking spending on construction. However, on a quarterly basis, there were signs of recovery with sales of ready-mixed concrete rising by 6% in the final quarter of 2024, while mortar volumes were up by more than 2%. The MPA forecasts modest growth in mineral product sales this year, driven by improving economic conditions and a gradual recovery in the housing market. It also said major infrastructure projects, such as HS2, Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C, are also expected to bolster demand.
  • Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Wednesday as an increase in U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles signalled weaker demand, alongside concerns of a new China-US trade war fuelled fears of softer growth. On Wednesday, Iran’s president urged OPEC members to unite against possible U.S sanctions, after Trump said he would restore the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that he enacted in his first term.
  • Energy pricing | Tech companies are pressuring the government to overhaul the electricity market by splitting it into different zones so that in areas where electricity is in short supply, the cost is higher. The aim is to make areas such as rural Scotland a hotspot for data centres because of the high potential energy generation from windfarms and low population.
  • Gold prices reached a record high as the US tariffs ramped up to include steel and aluminium.

Environment

  • Climate change | January 2025 was expected to be slightly cooler than January 2024 because of the shift away from the natural weather patterns in the pacific known as El Nino. But instead, last month broke the January 2024 record by nearly 0.1C becoming the warmest January on record, according to the European Copernicus Climate Service.
  • Air pollution is responsible for 1,100 cases of the main form of lung cancer in the UK, and UK rates are higher than those in the US and Canada. The data comes from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

Friday to Friday

Price / Index Week %
change
Annual %
change
FTSE 100 8,700.53 1.50 14.90
FTSE 250 20,807.84 -0.68 9.16
Nikkei 38,787.02 -1.98 5.12
CSI 300 3,892.70 1.98 15.68
S&P 500 6,025.99 -0.24 19.88
Nasdaq 19,523.40 -0.53 22.09
CAC 40 7,973.03 0.29 4.26
Dax 21,787.00 0.25 28.72
$ per £ 1.2394 -0.41 -1.84
€ per £ 1.2000 0.28 2.47
Gold £/oz 2,307.13 2.15 43.94
Brent Oil $/barrel 74.66 -2.74 -9.16

Weekly Summary

The majority of news this week has focussed on the imposition of trade tariffs by President Trump and retaliatory tariffs, and there is a distinct feeling that we have seen this news before, however, in Donald Trump’s first presidential term, tariffs on steel and aluminium were not imposed until March/June 2018, almost 18 months after he came into office. The challenge over the coming period will be to put the news into perspective, understanding what it means for a narrow section of the economy.

Author contact

Rachel Coleman
Rachel Coleman,
Associate Research Analyst
Kishan Patel
Kishan Patel,
Research Analyst