Looking ahead

Economic Week In Review | Issue 476 | 22 April 2025

UK construction and property

  • Apprenticeship support | The Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) unveiled its latest business plan, spending almost £290m in the next 12 months to help the sector address its skills crisis. It will continue to fund industry placements, expand its New Entrant Support Team (NEST), and work with devolved governments to align college provision and qualifications with industry needs. A new competence framework is also expected to be rolled out, alongside localized Employer Networks to direct funding more effectively. An additional £15m will be invested in the National Construction College’s three sites.
  • Building Safety Regulator (BSR) | Problems with the BSR’s new digital system has hindered staff accessing applications, however the regulator says that it has spent more time unpicking poor-quality applications than it has lost due to IT troubles. A freedom of information request from consultancy Project Four revealed that the BSR has only approved two out of 130 new-build applications in January this year. Part of a recent £2m funding boost from central government has been allocated to improving the digital system, while the rest will finance staff training and an external review of the BSR procedure.
  • Gateway 2 backlog | The BSR missed its target to clear the backlog of Gateway 2 approvals by April. The delays were initially caused by the withdrawal of two private building control companies last year, which meant the decision on 45 in-flight projects passed to the BSR. The head of the BSR has said that he “wouldn’t be adverse” to pre-application engagement to ease the delays at Gateway 2.
  • Building safety | According to provisional quarterly data from the Health and Safety Executive, the construction industry experienced one of its safest years on record. 19 construction workers died as a result of workplace injuries suffered between April and December, lower than the 35 workers who died in the same period in 2023. If fatal injuries continued at the same quarterly rate up to April 2023, some 25 construction workers will have died in the year – five fewer than the previous low of 30, experienced in both 2017/18 and 2018/19.
  • Construction job vacancies have risen despite a fall across the wider UK economy. At the same time, average weekly earnings in construction rose to £741, an increase of 4% compared with a year earlier and higher than inflation, suggesting that real pay growth remains strong. However, the rate of wage inflation has eased from the highs of 2022-23, when firms struggled to retain skilled tradespeople amid labour shortages and high attrition. Recruitment difficulties have eased from the extreme levels seen last year but remain above the long-term average, with smaller contractors having scaled back hiring, citing delays in planning approvals, a slowdown in housebuilding, and tighter client budgets.
  • Project starts are down 21% year-on-year and 4% against the preceding three months in the first quarter of 2025, according to Glenigan. The value of work commencing on-site still trending significantly below last year. Major projects (£100m+) and underlying schemes (<£100m) have both underperformed, posting declines both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year despite some momentum at the contract award stage. However, detailed planning approvals rose 8% against the preceding three months, with growth more prominent in the industrial, health, hotel & leisure, and education sectors. These trends suggest a strengthening development pipeline which, if sustained, could support a rebound in project starts during the second half of 2025.
  • Grid connections | The energy regulator Ofgem is to scrap the current first-come, first-served approach to the grid connections queue to speed up the connection of wind and solar farms to the grid. Ofgem has previously estimated that the changes will roughly treble the amount of power generation added to the grid per year, with the regulator wanting the first projects to be connected under the new regime in 2026.

Global economy

  • Europe’s rates | The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates for the seventh time this year. It cut the main rate to 2.25%, attempting to slow growth and reduce the impact of US tariffs. The Bank said the disinflation process is well on track, with both headline and core inflation declining in March. The Eurozone inflation (HCIP) came to 2.2% in March, down from February’s 2.3% year-on-year reading. Core inflation, which strips out volatile components such as energy and food, fell to 2.4%, the lowest reading since the start of 2022. Annual services inflation also fell to a three-year low, from 3.7% in February to 3.4% in March.
  • Suez Canal | Egypt’s revenue from the Suez Canal fell by almost two-thirds last year. The sharp drop has been blamed on regional tensions and wars in the Middle East, which have impacted traffic through the key waterway. The canal is a major source of foreign currency for the Egyptian government, with about 10% of world trade flowing through the waterway in recent years. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported in March 2024 that Suez Canal trade dropped by 50% in the first two months of that year, compared to the previous year, citing attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

UK economy

  • Job cuts | Britain’s labour market weakened before this month’s NIC increase for employers, but wage growth remained strong. Vacancies fell below pre-COVID pandemic levels for the first time in almost four years in the first three months of 2025. Britain’s minimum wage also went up by almost 7% this month, which could weigh on hiring plans.
  • Defence | UK defence firms have been given a boost after Emmanuel Macron dropped demands for a post-Brexit defence and security deal to be linked to fishing rights. It would mean UK companies being able to bid for contracts under the EU’s €150 billion defence fund, unveiled last month. The fund allows EU countries to borrow cash to invest more in defence and is aimed at enabling countries to rearm quicker. Hopes are now growing that a deal can be made with Brussels in time for a summit in London next month.
  • Inflation | Consumer price inflation slowed to its weakest in three months in March, with an annual rate of 2.6%, down from 2.8% in February. Falling fuel prices and unchanged food costs helped bring down the inflation rate; however, the price of clothes rose strongly after a surprise fall in February. Inflation for services slowed to 4.7% from 5.0% in February. Core headline inflation, which excludes energy, food, and tobacco prices, also eased.

Materials, commodities and currencies

  • US Dollar | The dollar reached a three-year low against a basket of currencies as President Donald Trump spoke out again against the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. The British Pound is at its highest level against the US dollar in seven months at $1.3423, and the Euro reached $1.1369
  • Euro | The euro has strengthened by over 10% against the dollar since January, reaching $1.1369 per euro. Much of this rally has been due to a flight from the dollar and growing confidence in the eurozone after growth of 0.8% last year and 1.3% expected in 2025. As a stronger euro means that commodities, which are priced in dollars, have become more affordable, this is a welcome relief for eurozone manufacturers.
  • Cement alternative| Forterra has teamed up with Swedish mining company LKAB Minerals to reuse manufacturing waste by recycling crushed brick waste into calcined clay as a low-carbon alternative to cement. Recycled brick waste materials have already saved around 2,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions, according to Forterra who claim the approach skips the superheating stage, as the waste bricks have already been fired and the carbon accounted for. Forterra estimates it will produce around 35,000 tonnes of calcined clay annually reducing CO2 emission and creating sustainable and circular industry practices.

Environment

  • Climate investment | The European Union reaffirmed its long-term commitment to tackling Europe’s climate and environment crises by investing more than €86 million in new green strategic projects over the next ten years. This funding covers projects in Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Slovenia, and Iceland and will support the European Water Resilience Strategy and key EU strategies and directives.
  • Climate change | The latest European State of the Climate report, compiled by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service and the World Meteorological Organisation, concluded that in 2024, Europe was the fastest warming continent. There was a clear divide: eastern parts suffered from extreme heat and drought, while western parts were extremely hot and humid. At the same time, Europe experienced the most widespread flooding since 2013. The report highlighted a few positive developments, including how European cities are becoming more resilient to climate change, and in 2024, a record 45% of electricity was generated by renewables.
  • Wind power | Germany approved over 4,000 megawatts (MW) of new onshore wind power capacity and added more than 1,000 MW in new installations in the first quarter of 2025, signalling a potential record for the sector. The boost is driven by Germany’s drive for decarbonisation and cutting dependency on imported fossil fuels. The country aims to meet 80% of its electricity needs with renewables by 2030.

Tariffs

  • Solar imports to the US from South East Asian countries will now face a tariff of up to 3,521%, with Cambodia being hit the hardest. The tariffs follow claims that Chinese companies in those countries are dumping cells in the US market.
  • UK tariffs | UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced that import duties on 89 goods – from electric vehicle batteries to fruit juice – will be suspended to support British companies affected by new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. These duties will reduce to zero for two years, with the rates in effect until July 2027. Donald Trump has also stated that tariffs for pharmaceuticals could come into force in the “not too distant future,” another potential blow to the UK economy since pharmaceuticals are Britain’s second largest export to the US after cars.
  • China-US trade war has further amplified with China barring its country airlines from accepting deliveries from Boeing in retaliation against Donald Trump’s tariffs.
  • Critical minerals | US. President Donald Trump ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on all US 50 critical mineral imports identified by the U.S. Geological Survey. Trump signed an order directing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to begin a security review under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. This follows a previous review in February into potential copper tariffs. Within 180 days, Lutnick is required to report his findings to the President. Were Trump to then impose a tariff on a nation’s critical minerals, the rate would supersede the “reciprocal” tariffs Trump imposed earlier this month, according to the White House.

Friday to Friday

Price / Index Week %
change
Annual %
change
FTSE 100 8,275.66 3.75 4.81
FTSE 250 19,250.01 3.97 -0.73
Nikkei 34,377.60 2.36 -7.26
CSI 300 3,772.22 0.58 6.51
S&P 500 5,282.70 -1.50 6.35
Nasdaq 16,268.45 -2.73 6.45
CAC 40 7,285.86 2.55 -9.18
Dax 21,205.86 1.34 19.55
$ per £ 1.3256 1.58 6.92
€ per £ 1.1666 1.27 0.27
Gold £/oz 2,507.80 1.32 29.68
Brent Oil $/barrel 67.96 4.94 -22.14

Weekly Summary

This week’s news demonstrates how interlinked the economy is; the threat of US tariffs does not just affect the cost of goods moving around the world, but also opinions on how economies will grow or not, central bank decisions, and the value of money. Crucially, for UK real estate, it adds another layer of uncertainty into any decision-making process.

At a more domestic level, we continue to see challenges from our ongoing skills crisis and Building Safety delays. News of potential growth in the pipeline reinforces the need for a skills plan from the CITB and its integration with devolved governments and industry needs.

Author contact

Rachel Coleman
Rachel Coleman,
Associate Research Analyst
Kishan Patel
Kishan Patel,
Research Analyst