Looking to autumn

Economic Week In Review | Issue 503 | 27 October 2025

UK construction and property

  • V levels | As part of a broader strategy to simplify vocational education for 16–19-year-olds and address the skills shortage, especially in construction, BTECs and other Level 3 technical qualifications are to be replaced with new “V-levels.”
  • T-levels | The Department for Education will launch a scheme in 2026 to help employers across England host T-level industry placements. The scheme offers tailored support to raise employers’ awareness of T-levels, as well as address barriers such as student readiness, supervision concerns, and liability issues while ensuring placements align with business needs.
  • Red tape | The government has announced a programme of independent assessments of key regulators, starting with the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), to crack down on overregulation, overlap and duplication, and regulatory overreach. This announcement comes at a time when Rachel Reeves unveiled a raft of measures to cut business bureaucracy by 25% to save UK firms nearly £6 billion annually by the end of the parliamentary term.
  • Planning applications for new homes in England have dropped to 17,691 in 2025, down from 19,369 in 2024. To meet Labour’s targets of 300,000 homes per year, 40,000 applications per month are needed—more than double the current rate.
  • Bid-rigging | A report by law firm CMS found that 84% of construction firms investigated by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) received infringement decisions. Every case involved anti-competitive practices, primarily bid rigging and price fixing. The report found that the building and construction sector had the highest proportion of mid-to-high range fines among sectors.
  • Housing safety | Phase one of Awaab’s Law came into effect today, and compels landlords to fix emergency health and safety hazards within 24 hours of reporting, and gives rules around damp and mould, as well as reporting.

Global economy

  • China | An outline of the ruling party’s blueprint for the next five years was released last Thursday after a four-day meeting in Beijing. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) will prioritise manufacturing, with a focus on high-tech industries (e.g., semiconductors, AI, green energy) and domestic consumption as a growth engine. This marks a shift from export-led growth to self-reliance and internal demand.
  • US national debt has reached $38 trillion, according to the Treasury Department, after reaching $37tn in August this year. It is also the fastest accumulation of a trillion dollars in debt outside of the Covid pandemic.
  • US inflation rose to 3% in September, up from 2.9% in August, but lower than the 3.1% economists had expected. In September alone, prices rose by 0.3%, a slight easing after rising 0.4% in August.

UK economy

  • UK debt | UK government borrowing in September 2025 reached £20.2 billion, the highest September in five years. The rise was driven by higher debt interest payments and inflation-linked increases to benefits and public sector pay. Despite the increased tax and national insurance, government spending outpaced revenue.
  • Autumn Statement | The Fabian Society has suggested that the Chancellor should extend the income tax threshold freeze for two years to raise £12 billion in the Autumn Statement next month to balance a relatively weak economic outlook.

Materials and commodities

 

  • Steel | SteelOrbis expects steel prices in the EU and UK to increase significantly due to the introduction of new tariffs and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective 1 January 2026. CBAM could add £30 to £130 per tonne to UK steel imports, depending on the origin and carbon intensity of the steel.
  • Building materials | According to the Construction Leadership Council, sales of building materials in Q3 were flat or declining compared to 2024, with no significant recovery expected before 2026. According to the CLC, product availability is generally good, although there are isolated reports of shortages in metalwork, concrete tiles, coatings, and plain tiles, the latter caused by manufacturing issues. In a largely stagnant market, prices have mostly remained stable.
  • Rare earths | Plans for a rare earths refinery in East Yorkshire have been scrapped, as the company plans to invest in the US instead.

Environment

  • Global coal use reached a record high in 2024, despite the exponential use of clean energy, according to the annual State of Climate Action None of the 45 global climate indicators recorded by the report are on track to meet their 2030 targets. One of those indicators is the carbon intensity of steel, and the report shows that globally, it is headed in the wrong direction.
  • Environment offences | Water companies that commit environmental offenses could face faster and larger fines, with proposed penalties of up to £500,000. The government has also proposed the idea of automatic penalties, similar to speeding tickets, to fine clear and specific breaches, with the proposed value for these automatic penalties ranging from £10,000 to £20,000.
  • Climate rules | The US has demanded that the EU roll back its climate and human rights rules in order to allow for greater imports of LNG. The EU’s corporate sustainability due diligence directive requires gas exporters to the bloc to show that they protect human rights and are cutting their plant heating emissions, or risk hefty fines.

Friday to Friday

Price / Index Week %
change
Annual %
change
FTSE 100 9,642.98 3.08 16.90
FTSE 250 22,529.02 3.42 8.21
Nikkei 49,299.65 3.61 30.03
CSI 300 4,660.68 3.24 17.80
S&P 500 6,791.69 1.92 16.93
Nasdaq 23,204.87 2.31 25.31
CAC 40 8,225.63 0.63 9.71
Dax 24,239.89 1.72 24.54
$ per £ 1.3296 -0.93 2.45
€ per £ 1.1437 -0.52 -4.71
Gold £/oz 3,090.57 -2.42 45.80
Brent Oil $/barrel 65.20 6.38 -14.27

Weekly Summary

Red tape, skills shortages, and regulatory impacts continue to create a challenging market, and not just for construction. Many are looking for the Autumn Statement to provide some relief or to plot a course through these challenges, but commentators regularly remind us of the economic headwinds facing the economy, as echoed by this week’s news on debt. With just about a month until the Autumn Statement, we will track the news and speculation surrounding it.

Author contact

Rachel Coleman
Rachel Coleman,
Associate Research Analyst
Kishan Patel
Kishan Patel,
Research Analyst