Circus of rumours?

Economic Week In Review | Issue 506 | 17 November 2025

UK construction and property

  • Construction output rose marginally in September. Growth of 0.7% in new work was partly offset by a fall of 0.5% in repair and maintenance. Overall in Q3 2025, construction output grew by 0.1%, while new orders rose by 10%.
  • Infrastructure | The All-Party Parliamentary Group on Project Delivery has proposed recommendations for the government to tackle challenges such as delays and overspending. The recommendations include chief project officers in all government departments, giving NISTA stronger powers to oversee projects end-to-end, and embedding delivery discipline in the government’s 10-year infrastructure plan.
  • Employment in the construction industry fell. ONS data showed the number of self-employed workers fell nearly 18% between Q3 2019 and Q3 2025. At the same time, the number of people employed directly has fallen by almost 9%.
  • Labour shortages | The Construction Plant-hire Association released a report with Oxford Economics which analysed the National Infrastructure Pipeline alongside the construction skills crisis and demands for housebuilding. You can read the report here.
  • Grid connections | The National Audit Office (NAO) warned that the UK’s electricity grid needs to expand twice as fast by 2030 compared to the past decade to meet rising demand as the current growth rate is insufficient to meet the government’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan.
  • PFI successor | The Confederation of British Industry has partnered with law firm Brown Jacobson to advise the government on creating a new public-private partnership model (PPP) to replace the PFI and PF2 schemes, which were abolished in 2018. Brown Jacobson will work with the CBI’s Infrastructure Working Group (60+ businesses) to shape proposals for the government.

Global economy

  • Strategic investment | South Korea and the U.S. have signed a memorandum of understanding to realize $350 billion in strategic investments in various industries in the U.S. The two countries will complete the selection of investment plans by January 2029.
  • Japan’s economy shrank for the first time in six quarters as its exports fell due to US tariffs. Exports to the US were 4.5% lower than a year ago.

UK economy

  • Unemployment in the UK has risen to 5% in the three months to September, showing signs that the jobs market has weakened. It is the highest rate since the period covering December 2020 to February 2021. Average wage growth was 4.6% in Q3, down from 4.7% in Q2.
  • Economic growth | The UK economy sees slower-than-expected economic growth of 0.1% in Q3. The ONS says a fall in car production was partly responsible, as in the month of September, UK car production hit a 70-year low. In September, the UK economy shrank by 0.1%.
  • UK exports | UK exports to the US have fallen to the lowest level since January 2022, decreasing by £500 million or 11.4% in September, despite the UK-US trade agreement. More broadly, total UK goods exports fell by £1.7 billion or 5.5% in September, with a decrease in exports from both EU and non-EU countries. This pushed the UK’s trade in goods deficit wider; it increased by £3 billion to £59.6 billion in Q3 2025.

Materials and commodities

  • Budget | Last week, the pound fell along with a rise in the price of UK government borrowing as investors worried about how the Labour government plans to cover its fiscal shortfall in the upcoming budget. The movement was all in reaction to news that Chancellor Rachel Reeves had backtracked on plans to hike income tax rates.
  • Oil | The International Energy Agency has revised its global oil supply estimate upwards, stating that oil supply will exceed demand by more than four million barrels per day in 2026. The gap between supply and demand is growing despite stronger deliveries to China.
  • Steel | The Trade Remedies Authority has launched a review of the tariff rate quota under the UK steel safeguard measure for rebar. The reason for the review is that imports from Vietnam may potentially exceed the 3% threshold for developing country exemptions under WTO rules.

Environment

  • Fossil fuel emissions | The world’s burning of fossil fuels is set to release more CO2 than ever before this year, but emissions have grown much less quickly over the past decade as renewables have taken off. Analysis by the clean energy think tank Ember suggests that fossil fuel use in electricity generation has flatlined in 2025, largely thanks to the rapid growth of solar.

Friday to Friday

Price / Index Week %
change		 Annual %
change
FTSE 100 9,698.37 0.16 20.27
FTSE 250 21,819.56 0.21 6.56
Nikkei 50,376.53 0.20 30.36
CSI 300 4,628.14 -1.08 16.61
S&P 500 6,734.11 0.08 14.71
Nasdaq 22,900.59 -0.45 22.59
CAC 40 8,179.09 2.88 12.51
Dax 23,876.55 1.30 24.29
$ per £ 1.3157 -0.06 4.21
€ per £ 1.1324 -0.40 -5.37
Gold £/oz 3,101.43 2.02 52.69
Brent Oil $/barrel 54.39 -14.52 -23.44

Weekly Summary

A week away from the UK Budget, the papers are full of speculation as to what may or may not be announced. Andy Haldane (formerly of the Bank of England) warned in an interview with Sky News that the “circus” of rumours before the Budget was damaging the economy, as it causes “businesses and consumers to hunker down,” suggesting that the system should be changed.

Once the Budget has been read next week, we will sum up the key points for construction.

Author contact

Rachel Coleman
Rachel Coleman,
Associate Research Analyst
Kishan Patel
Kishan Patel,
Research Analyst

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