Issue 525 | 20 April 2026 - Turner & Townsend alinea

UK construction and property

UK construction output rose 1% in February 2026, mainly due to a 4.3% rise in private housing new work. Repair and maintenance grew more slowly. However, output dropped 2% over the three months to Feb 2026, marking the fifth consecutive decline in the rolling three-month measure.
MPA | The Mineral Products Association (MPA) reports that rising taxes—up 26% in five years for members—are limiting growth and investment in the UK construction materials sector. Meanwhile, demand for key materials like aggregates, ready-mixed concrete, asphalt, and mortar has fallen to record lows.
Insolvencies | In February 2026, 301 construction firms in England and Wales became insolvent, with specialist contractors accounting for 152 cases. This was a 9% increase from January 2026 but 16% lower than February 2025. Over the past year, 3,851 firms went under, down from 4,050 the previous year.
Financial collapse | The collapse of Market Financial Solutions (MFS) and related companies has driven insolvency rates up by 82%. MFS had more than 100 companies connected to it in real estate which are also entering administration after allegations of fraud.

Global growth | The IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, from 3.3%, due to Middle East conflict and higher energy prices. In worse cases, growth could drop to 2.5% or 2.0% depending on the severity of the conflict. Emerging markets forecasts were cut to 3.9%, from 4.2%, over oil and currency issues. U.S. growth is now forecasted at 2.3% and the euro zone at 1.1%. The IMF warns energy disruptions may increase inflation, possibly leading to tighter monetary policy.
China’s economy | China’s Q1 2026 GDP grew 5%, surpassing expectations after lowering its growth target to 4.5-5%, the lowest official target set since 1991. Growth was led by manufacturing and car exports. March imports rose nearly 28%, but export growth slowed to 2.5%, a 20% drop from the year earlier, due to higher energy costs and weaker global demand.
Germany’s economy is expected to face prolonged weakness and stagflation as its economic growth is forecast to fall from 1.0% to 0.5%. Energy costs have exacerbated other challenges such as a shrinking workforce and low productivity.

UK economic growth | In February, UK GDP rose 0.5%, the fastest monthly growth in over two years. Services and production both grew 0.5%; construction increased 1%. Three-month GDP growth reached 0.5%, up from 0.3%. These figures are from before the Middle East crisis, with a slowdown expected in March due to energy price shocks.
UK growth outlook | The IMF cut the UK’s 2026 growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.3%, the biggest downgrade among advanced economies. Higher oil and gas prices are set to push UK inflation to 3.2% this year, one of the G7’s highest, before dropping to 2.4% by 2027. Despite short-term challenges, the IMF expects UK growth to recover to 1.3% next year, possibly making it the fastest-growing European G7 economy.
BICS | The UK government will expand the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) from April 2027, cutting electricity bills by up to 25% for 10,000+ manufacturers, previously 7000, to enhance competitiveness. A one-time payment in 2027 will offset missed support since April 2026.

Steel quotas | EU states have agreed on new steel import rules starting July 2026 to replace expiring safeguards. Quotas will drop by about 47% from 2024 levels, allowing 18.3 million tonnes per year. Imports above quota face a 50% duty. A “melt and pour” rule will help determine quota allocation by identifying the steel’s original production country.
Aluminium prices | The LME metals index, which tracks six key base metals, hit a record high, rising nearly 12% in four weeks, mainly driven by a 15% surge in aluminium prices amid supply shortage concerns linked to the Middle East conflict.
Biofuel prices in Asia have fallen below diesel for the first time, encouraging many to think beyond fossil fuels for long-term stability.
Jet fuel | EU states may be required to share jet fuel soon as the current fuel price crisis becomes one of shortage. Some airlines are unable to run scheduled flights, and the problem is expected to worsen if the crisis persists until summer.
Global oil prices surged after US President Donald Trump announced that its navy had intercepted and taken control of an Iran-flagged cargo ship. This development has heightened concerns that the delicate ceasefire and upcoming peace discussions with Iran might be at risk. Brent crude rose by as much as 5% to approximately $95.50 per barrel, highlighting worries about potential interruptions to global energy supplies.

Carbon Price Support | The UK government has announced it will abolish the Carbon Price Support (CPS) tax on electricity generation from April 2028, currently frozen at £18 a tonne of CO2, arguing the levy has fulfilled its purpose and is no longer needed to drive decarbonisation. Electricity generators will still continue to face carbon costs through the UK Emission Trading Scheme currently trading around £49 per tonne of CO2.
Renewable energy | The swift expansion of solar and wind energy has successfully compensated for the decline in gas power, helping to prevent a return to coal. Even though there has been some political backing for coal in certain regions, global coal usage remained minimal, with imports hitting a five-year low—unlike previous crises where coal use increased significantly. From 2022 to 2025, over 2,000 GW of renewable energy capacity was added worldwide. In 2025 alone, the electricity generated by newly installed solar and wind can nearly double the amount previously produced by LNG passing through Hormuz.